[h=1]Running back tiers[/h]
Eric Karabell
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
antasy football managers often ask when they see tiered rankings -- regardless of sport -- how I know a player belongs in a certain place. My answer is always the same: Nobody knows, because there are no guarantees. That is the truth. Call it an intuition or a gut feeling, but all the statistical evidence we use to create rankings -- in a general sense, at least -- is one thing, but grouping players together is another. There are no absolute right answers, but I know that grouping players in tiers, intuitively or not, helps me when there are mere seconds to make an important decision in a draft or auction.
The basis of grouping in tiers: Combine players to determine what you believe signals the depth ranges for the position(s). For example, in a recent draft -- and pretty much in every draft, to be honest, whether we are talking starting pitchers or point guards -- I looked at the available flex-eligible players and noticed quite a few wide receivers I still liked but only one running back I thought I would be able to count on in September. Well, that is all I needed to see. If a group of five or six at one position remains similarly valued, but not at another, therein lies the answer. I eagerly clicked to secure the running back. I do this at each of the four key fantasy football positions.
Without further ado, here are one writer's thoughts on which running backs (for PPR formats) belong tiered together. It is all subjective, and obviously these are my rankings, as of publish date. They will change often during August, and this file will be updated later this month. Also, you might think a certain running back belongs two tiers ahead or behind, and that is precisely why you should do your own tiers!
This is not so much extra work, you know, and the return on investment can be significant. One does not need some big spreadsheet with endless lists. Just print our cheat sheets, circle some players, draw some arrows here and there, and ... well, perhaps put a bit more time into it. Draft day is, after all, the best day of the season.
Updated: Aug. 28
Tier 1: Top of Round 1<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals
Le'Veon Bell, New York Jets
Notes: I thought about placing Barkley in his own tier because I have not seriously considered anyone else for the top spot. That's just me, perhaps. For now, even at the end of August, I am not worried about Elliott. Johnson and Bell might belong in their own tier, and after the top wide receivers, but I like the target-upside for each, with young, productive quarterbacks. The first wide receiver -- click here for the wide receiver tiers -- shows up for me at No. 7.
Tier 2: Top of Round 2
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
Notes: I actually see fewer questions for a few of these players but not the same upside. The Ohio players -- not the Ohio Players, famous for "Funky Worm" and other 1970s hits -- look like stars, and I have few concerns about competition. In fact, because running back seems far shallower than wide receiver, I might choose one of these players late in Round 1. Never be afraid to reach a bit for a player you really want.
Tier 3: Rounds 2/3
James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers
Damien Williams, Kansas City Chiefs
Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons
Notes: Some question marks with each of these fine players, but that shows how important it is to get one or two of the top options. Conner was not supposed to be awesome, but Bell sat out, and look what happened. Williams was buried and then, opportunity knocked. Freeman was hurt.
Tier 4: Round 3
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers
Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
Todd Gurley II, Los Angeles Rams
Notes: Now we get into some issues, right? Gordon will not sit out all season, but it might be a while, perhaps a few months. Fournette needs to get on board and return to his rookie greatness. Gurley was great last season, and perhaps I and only I rank him this low, but how can others not see the problems with his arthritic knee getting much worse? I have little interest in investing in these running backs.
Tier 5: Round 4
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
James White, New England Patriots
Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts
Josh Jacobs, Oakland Raiders
Notes: We have four very different players in this tier, but perhaps it is the lack of clarity that binds them. Mack is safe until he is not, injuries have been a factor and Andrew Luck is not playing. White was a top-10 PPR running back last season, but we know in a Bill Belichick system that last year -- last week, even -- means little. Jacobs is a rookie, and his coach is, well, not. Henry tortured his team and ours until December. Is that a safe player? He could go in many tiers, really, but for now, he is among my top 20 running backs. He could end up 10th or 30th and surprise nobody.
Tier 6: Rounds 5/6
Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions
Mark Ingram II, Baltimore Ravens
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks
Notes: There is so much uncertainty here, but these running backs figure to be flex options, at least early.
Tier 7: Rounds 6/7
Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears
Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
Sony Michel, New England Patriots
Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks
Royce Freeman, Denver Broncos
Notes: Do you feel lucky? Well, let us throw a few more rookies your way and see what happens. Rookies break hearts, but because they have yet to struggle in the NFL, we love them. Lindsay went undrafted in real life a year ago, but he easily pushed aside his teammate who was a third-round pick and helped so many fantasy managers. But that hardly means he will do so again. As for Michel, my issue is clear, and it is hardly just the knee problems: He does not catch passes. Remember, receptions count in PPR formats. Cohen, like the Patriots' White, is so valuable. I continue to group Penny and Freeman together -- and secure each in too many drafts -- because they are reserves today, but I believe that will change in September. Yes, they hardly dominated as rookies, but does that matter? A year ago, few were thinking Carson and Lindsay would be stars.
Tier 8: Rounds 8/9
Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
Tevin Coleman, San Francisco 49ers
Duke Johnson Jr., Houston Texans
Derrius Guice, Washington Redskins
Latavius Murray, New Orleans Saints
Jordan Howard, Philadelphia Eagles
Notes: Ekeler might be gone by this point in your league and my concern is obvious: that Gordon returns to active duty tomorrow and your plans for RB2 status go away. Johnson could be the prime running back with Lamar Miller hurt, but it is likely the Texans find someone to help him. Guice could be great, or he could share touches all season. Howard and Murray should score touchdowns, but they seem unlikely to catch many passes.
Tier 9: Round 10/11
LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills
Peyton Barber, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Notes: Here we have a pair of older running backs whom fantasy managers simply do not seem to care for. Could either end up a top-20 running back? Of course. Could either end up displaced by a younger option before October? Of course.
Tier 10: Rounds 12/13
Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams
Darwin Thompson, Kansas City Chiefs
Jaylen Samuels, Pittsburgh Steelers
Jalen Richard, Oakland Raiders
Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts
Chris Thompson, Washington Redskins
Ito Smith, Atlanta Falcons
Dion Lewis, Tennessee Titans
Jerick McKinnon, San Francisco 49ers
Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matt Breida, San Francisco 49ers
Damien Harris, New England Patriots
Carlos Hyde, Kansas City Chiefs
Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers
Kalen Ballage, Miami Dolphins
Mike Davis, Chicago Bears
Justin Jackson, Los Angeles Chargers
Malcolm Brown, Los Angeles Rams
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings
Notes: Samuels and Jones might deserve better placement, I admit, but they will not be merely given starting roles. Richard, Hines, Thompson and Lewis, among others, catch passes. Breida looks like nice value. Ballage could start in Week 1. Good luck!
Eric Karabell
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
antasy football managers often ask when they see tiered rankings -- regardless of sport -- how I know a player belongs in a certain place. My answer is always the same: Nobody knows, because there are no guarantees. That is the truth. Call it an intuition or a gut feeling, but all the statistical evidence we use to create rankings -- in a general sense, at least -- is one thing, but grouping players together is another. There are no absolute right answers, but I know that grouping players in tiers, intuitively or not, helps me when there are mere seconds to make an important decision in a draft or auction.
The basis of grouping in tiers: Combine players to determine what you believe signals the depth ranges for the position(s). For example, in a recent draft -- and pretty much in every draft, to be honest, whether we are talking starting pitchers or point guards -- I looked at the available flex-eligible players and noticed quite a few wide receivers I still liked but only one running back I thought I would be able to count on in September. Well, that is all I needed to see. If a group of five or six at one position remains similarly valued, but not at another, therein lies the answer. I eagerly clicked to secure the running back. I do this at each of the four key fantasy football positions.
Without further ado, here are one writer's thoughts on which running backs (for PPR formats) belong tiered together. It is all subjective, and obviously these are my rankings, as of publish date. They will change often during August, and this file will be updated later this month. Also, you might think a certain running back belongs two tiers ahead or behind, and that is precisely why you should do your own tiers!
This is not so much extra work, you know, and the return on investment can be significant. One does not need some big spreadsheet with endless lists. Just print our cheat sheets, circle some players, draw some arrows here and there, and ... well, perhaps put a bit more time into it. Draft day is, after all, the best day of the season.
Updated: Aug. 28
Tier 1: Top of Round 1<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals
Le'Veon Bell, New York Jets
Notes: I thought about placing Barkley in his own tier because I have not seriously considered anyone else for the top spot. That's just me, perhaps. For now, even at the end of August, I am not worried about Elliott. Johnson and Bell might belong in their own tier, and after the top wide receivers, but I like the target-upside for each, with young, productive quarterbacks. The first wide receiver -- click here for the wide receiver tiers -- shows up for me at No. 7.
Tier 2: Top of Round 2
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
Notes: I actually see fewer questions for a few of these players but not the same upside. The Ohio players -- not the Ohio Players, famous for "Funky Worm" and other 1970s hits -- look like stars, and I have few concerns about competition. In fact, because running back seems far shallower than wide receiver, I might choose one of these players late in Round 1. Never be afraid to reach a bit for a player you really want.
Tier 3: Rounds 2/3
James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers
Damien Williams, Kansas City Chiefs
Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons
Notes: Some question marks with each of these fine players, but that shows how important it is to get one or two of the top options. Conner was not supposed to be awesome, but Bell sat out, and look what happened. Williams was buried and then, opportunity knocked. Freeman was hurt.
Tier 4: Round 3
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers
Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
Todd Gurley II, Los Angeles Rams
Notes: Now we get into some issues, right? Gordon will not sit out all season, but it might be a while, perhaps a few months. Fournette needs to get on board and return to his rookie greatness. Gurley was great last season, and perhaps I and only I rank him this low, but how can others not see the problems with his arthritic knee getting much worse? I have little interest in investing in these running backs.
Tier 5: Round 4
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
James White, New England Patriots
Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts
Josh Jacobs, Oakland Raiders
Notes: We have four very different players in this tier, but perhaps it is the lack of clarity that binds them. Mack is safe until he is not, injuries have been a factor and Andrew Luck is not playing. White was a top-10 PPR running back last season, but we know in a Bill Belichick system that last year -- last week, even -- means little. Jacobs is a rookie, and his coach is, well, not. Henry tortured his team and ours until December. Is that a safe player? He could go in many tiers, really, but for now, he is among my top 20 running backs. He could end up 10th or 30th and surprise nobody.
Tier 6: Rounds 5/6
Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions
Mark Ingram II, Baltimore Ravens
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks
Notes: There is so much uncertainty here, but these running backs figure to be flex options, at least early.
Tier 7: Rounds 6/7
Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears
Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
Sony Michel, New England Patriots
Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks
Royce Freeman, Denver Broncos
Notes: Do you feel lucky? Well, let us throw a few more rookies your way and see what happens. Rookies break hearts, but because they have yet to struggle in the NFL, we love them. Lindsay went undrafted in real life a year ago, but he easily pushed aside his teammate who was a third-round pick and helped so many fantasy managers. But that hardly means he will do so again. As for Michel, my issue is clear, and it is hardly just the knee problems: He does not catch passes. Remember, receptions count in PPR formats. Cohen, like the Patriots' White, is so valuable. I continue to group Penny and Freeman together -- and secure each in too many drafts -- because they are reserves today, but I believe that will change in September. Yes, they hardly dominated as rookies, but does that matter? A year ago, few were thinking Carson and Lindsay would be stars.
Tier 8: Rounds 8/9
Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
Tevin Coleman, San Francisco 49ers
Duke Johnson Jr., Houston Texans
Derrius Guice, Washington Redskins
Latavius Murray, New Orleans Saints
Jordan Howard, Philadelphia Eagles
Notes: Ekeler might be gone by this point in your league and my concern is obvious: that Gordon returns to active duty tomorrow and your plans for RB2 status go away. Johnson could be the prime running back with Lamar Miller hurt, but it is likely the Texans find someone to help him. Guice could be great, or he could share touches all season. Howard and Murray should score touchdowns, but they seem unlikely to catch many passes.
Tier 9: Round 10/11
LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills
Peyton Barber, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Notes: Here we have a pair of older running backs whom fantasy managers simply do not seem to care for. Could either end up a top-20 running back? Of course. Could either end up displaced by a younger option before October? Of course.
Tier 10: Rounds 12/13
Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams
Darwin Thompson, Kansas City Chiefs
Jaylen Samuels, Pittsburgh Steelers
Jalen Richard, Oakland Raiders
Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts
Chris Thompson, Washington Redskins
Ito Smith, Atlanta Falcons
Dion Lewis, Tennessee Titans
Jerick McKinnon, San Francisco 49ers
Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matt Breida, San Francisco 49ers
Damien Harris, New England Patriots
Carlos Hyde, Kansas City Chiefs
Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers
Kalen Ballage, Miami Dolphins
Mike Davis, Chicago Bears
Justin Jackson, Los Angeles Chargers
Malcolm Brown, Los Angeles Rams
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings
Notes: Samuels and Jones might deserve better placement, I admit, but they will not be merely given starting roles. Richard, Hines, Thompson and Lewis, among others, catch passes. Breida looks like nice value. Ballage could start in Week 1. Good luck!
